Pinza Playoff Pool Preview #3 - How Many Games?

Hi friends. This is the final preview for the Round 1 grid of the Stanley Cup Playoff Pool. 

If you're joining me for the first time in this space, welcome! I've recently come back to this little blog and re-discovered a real joy for writing. To stay in the habit, I'm focusing on one of my hobbies (two, actually), and launching a new pool for the Stanley Cup playoffs. Proceeds will go toward scholarships for students at Chabot College (where I work) who are transferring to university. To learn more about the pool, start with this entry. 

And if you know about the pool and are ready to start, do the Venmo ($20 plus whatever else you'd like to donate toward scholarships), download the form, and post your grid in the comments or send via What'sApp or email it to me: coach.pinza@gmail.com  

All right, now the hockey talk:

Playoff Series Matchups

In order to predict which of the eight first-round playoff series will be the longest, we should probably check in on the standings and see who's set to play whom. (Again, for those new to hockey/the NHL, every single playoff round is a best-of-seven series of games. First team to four wins moves on.)

There continues to be quite a bit of movement, even as we are approaching the final three or four games of the season, which ends April 18. (Playoffs begin on April 20.) So everything that follows is a snapshot through games played on April 11.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

In the Central Division, Dallas is one win away from clinching the division, which would also lock in a Colorado-Winnipeg series. Both of these teams have the exact same record right now, but Winnipeg has the first tie-breaker -- more wins without overtime. (aka "Regulation Wins" - more on overtime coming later)

For the Pacific Division, Vancouver and Edmonton are in a tight race for division, and they play each other tomorrow, April 13. Vancouver does have the lead in the standings right now; whoever wins the division most likely plays Nashville.

A bit further back, Vegas and Los Angeles are jostling to match up with either Dallas or the 2nd place Pacific team.

EASTERN CONFERENCE

Boston, Florida, and Toronto are all vying for the top spot in the Atlantic division. The two runners-up will play each other; Tampa Bay will probably play the winner. Boston currently leads the race; Toronto is a bit of a long-shot to end up on top.

Finally, in the Metropolitan division, the New York Rangers are sitting on top with Carolina still close enough to maybe overtake them in the final week of the season.

What follows is a five team race to decide who plays each of them:

The NY Islanders are currently in the lead among the five; they would face the runner-up in the division (currently Carolina).

Pittsburgh is about a game-and-a-half behind the Islanders; they would face the division champion (Rangers as of now).

Detroit, Washington, and Philadelphia are all a 1/2 game behind Pittsburgh. On tie-breakers, Detroit sits behind the other two, who play each other next Tuesday. Pittsburgh also plays the Islanders on Wednesday.

So right this second, your playoff series are these (team on the left has home ice and would host the first two games plus Games 5 and 7, if needed):

  

Sample Grids for the Pool: Who Plays (and Wins) in Overtime?

Detroit and the Islanders are tied for the most overtime goals scored this season with nine apiece.

The Islanders are also second in the league for most overtime games played, but here again, you need nine different teams in your first-round grid, so the next team best team (Toronto) moves into that corner square.

Since the trade deadline on March 8....

There are many ties to note here:

Most goals scored: Vegas and Colorado both have 3.

Fewest goals allowed: Four teams in the East have not allowed any; Boston and Toronto could have been listed in that row. Colorado and Los Angeles are the only Western teams with zero goals allowed.

Most games played: Pittsburgh's overtime win last night put them into a tie with Edmonton (five games apiece). Nashville is part of a crowd of teams with four games each; Colorado and Vegas are part of that group.

A final note: overtime rules are different in the regular season and the playoffs.

In the regular season (which is how the grids above are calculated), teams only play five minutes of overtime. If neither team scores, they go to a shootout.

In the Stanley Cup Playoffs, there are no shootouts. Teams play full, twenty-minute periods of overtime - whoever scores a goal in overtime wins. Overtime periods are added until someone wins, no matter how long it takes. The longest two playoff games in NHL history, both in the 1930's, had six overtime periods - the equivalent of almost three full games! 

This is a key point for the playoff pool: "longest series" will be judged by the number of game minutes total in the series. Thus, if a series includes six games, but one of those games had four overtime periods, that would potentially be a longer series than another matchup that had seven games but no overtime periods. 

6 games x 3 periods = 18, plus 4 overtime periods = 22 periods. 

7 games x 3 periods = 21 period.

However, this also depends on when the goals were scored in the overtime periods. We'll be calculating down to the minute, so the scenario gets trickier when you factor in whether the teams played all of each overtime period.

So think about the matchups, and consider which two teams you think will need the extra time to decide a winner. 

Good luck!

Pinza Playoff Pool Preview #2 - Team Defense

We'll continue to explain and preview the pool I'm hosting for the Stanley Cup Playoffs. If you've made it to this entry, thank you! If you're new to my blog - welcome. I promise I write about things other than fantasy hockey...I'm just trying to get back into a routine after a one-blog-in-eleven-years hiatus. (It was a good entry, but very serious.) My re-entry blog is a bit more multi-faceted, and if you want to go back to the start of the hockey thread, here you go.

OK, back to the business. My Stanley Cup Playoff Pool is doubling as a fundraiser for Language Arts scholarships at Chabot College. You can download the form directly from this link; the fee/donation details are at the bottom of this blog.

Today, we preview how the grids are completed by featuring defensive statistics:

Hockey does use goaltenders, as in soccer, but they calculate shots differently. Here, we only refer to "shots on goal", which can only result in goals or saves. A shot that hits the goalpost in hockey does not count as a shot on goal, whereas it is tallied as a "shot on target" in soccer.

On this particular grid, note that Los Angeles leads the West in fewest goals and shots allowed, so Edmonton moves into the center square as the next-highest ranked team for shots allowed. If we were to put LA in the center square, Vancouver could claim the fewest goals spot in the West - it's the next highest-ranked team in that conference.

We now look at the same statistics, limited to just the last month's worth of games (the NHL's trade deadline was March 8):

In this more limited window, all the top row teams were among the top four in the league in fewest shots against. So the middle row shows you the next-highest teams in that category.

And discerning readers may catch that you've seen ten different teams from the East across the four preview grids so far. That's because there is a very tight race for the final two spots in the playoffs. As of this moment, the Islanders and Washington occupy those spots, but Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, and Detroit are all within two points of sneaking in with four games remaining in the season. 

Up next, an explanation of how we determine the "longest playoff series" in the first round.

Pinza Playoff Pool Preview #1 - How to Play

This blog is going to be practically focused on the pool I've created for the Stanley Cup Playoffs. At least half of the proceeds from this pool will be donated toward Language Arts scholarships for students at Chabot College wishing to pursue a degree in English or another language. (For more on the "origin story," see my previous entry.)

Structure of the Game

The Stanley Cup Playoffs consists of four rounds - eight teams qualify from the Eastern and Western Conferences for a total field of sixteen. Every match-up is a best-of-seven series within the conference until the final two teams - the champions of each Conference - square off for the coveted Stanley Cup.

As the playoffs unfold, poolies will be given three different 3 x 3 grids to complete. The goal is to predict which teams will end up leading the league or their conference in certain statistics during the designated round.

Here is the grid for the first round of the playoffs, which begins on April 20:

Round 1 Fill in the grid with nine different teams that match the intersecting criteria for Round 1 of the playoffs.

	League Leader	Next best in Western Conference	Next best in Eastern Conference
Most goals scored
Fewest goals allowed
Played in longest series.

Players will earn 2 points for each correct team under "League Leader", and one point for correct teams in the other columns. Highest score after the first round will win a payout (I'm budgeting $2 per player at this point.)

Sample Grids (Offense)

Here are some sample grids with different categories to help you understand how the game works and get you started on your research and preparation. One challenge in the first round is to fill your grid with nine different teams. Thus, if the same team ends up leading more than one category, we'll necessarily have to give some second- or third-best teams a chance to "win" that square.

Let's look at two examples. First, this grid represents statistics through games played last Sunday, April 7:

A quick note - in hockey, when a player commits a penalty, they are removed from the game for an amount of time (usually two minutes), and the other team is allowed to play with an advantage for that time. This is known as a "power play" for the team with the extra player. Conversely, "even-strength" refers to the time when no team has any penalties -- both teams have their full complement on the ice.

For the grid above, if you look at the actual statistics for this part of the season (and the NHL website has a pretty good, easily filtered and sorted stats section), the three teams that lead in total goals also lead the league in even-strength goals. Thus, the "winning" teams in the middle row have to be the next-highest ranked teams. The same is true in shots per game: Los Angeles actually ranks behind other Western teams who are already on the grid (Colorado and Edmonton).

The next sample highlights just the last month or so of the season - games played after the league's trade deadline:

Once again, since Colorado and Edmonton are tops in the league in multiple categories, Los Angeles and Nashville sneak onto the grid as the next-highest ranked teams. 

The pool will feature three grids total, as I said. The second round will have a new grid where you'll, once again, pick teams for each square. After that round, we'll only have four teams left, so the final grid will ask you to use individual players to fill in each square.

As we get ready to start the playoffs, I'll provide more sample grids using statistical categories that will be similar to what you'll be asked to predict in the pool grids. My next preview will focus on defense statistics -- goals allowed and saves made.

How to Donate & Participate

While our college foundation sets up the direct-donation link for scholarships, you can Venmo me your entry fee of $20 using this link or the QR code below. 

If you'd like to donate more, simply add on to that amount. I'll only pull $10 for the pool. Or if you want it all to be donated and you don't want to play in the pool, just send a note to that effect. I appreciate any and all support. Thank you!!

Here you can download the form with your Round 1 grid. You can post your completed grid in the comments, email it to me (coach.pinza@gmail.com), or send it via WhatsApp. 

Check out my other preview blogs for a snapshot of which teams are leading in defense, extra game time, and other stats that may appear on the future grids.

Thank you for reading and (hopefully) playing.

When Hockey and Sudoku Lock Eyes, and They Know....

Believe it or not, ESPN was showing a game last night that was NOT college basketball or baseball. It was a hockey game: Dallas 7, Colorado 4. These are two of the top teams in the Western Conference, with the Colorado Avalanche winning the Stanley Cup championship two years ago, and the Dallas Stars reaching the Cup Final two years before that. 

This was appointment viewing for me because the performance of five players in this game would determine whether I could squeeze out a late comeback victory in my fantasy hockey league. Alas, my team fell just short and will now have to play for 3rd place in the made-up contest this coming week. But the action itself was thrilling: players gliding at a blistering pace up, down, and around each other, firing laser-precise passes and snapping shots on goal, diving after loose pucks and slamming into opponents. It was a great spectacle even without the extra emotional investment, yet fantasy hockey allows me to study a game that already entertains me, learning more about the league, its teams and players, and the variety of ways their performances are measured. In my leadership, I'm committed to data- and evidence-driven decision-making, studying both the statistics and the stories that describe how our education system serves our students, including where it continues to keep learning at bay for some populations. As a hobby, fantasy hockey gives me an additional outlet for these analytical skills without the pressure of fighting historic inequities.

In recent years, I've also started playing Sudoku. I'm intrigued - maybe even entranced - by the challenge of taking a few pieces of data and gradually drawing conclusions out of them until the full picture emerges. It's a good reminder that there is always a solution hiding behind the few numbers we can see. There is only one way that these particular digits can fit together, and we can dig it out if we're thinking with enough care and creativity. I feel a comforting sense of hope in these puzzles.  

A few months back, a long-time friend and fantasy league-mate Marc introduced me to the dream child of these two hobbies of mine: Puckdoku. It's truly a hockey trivia contest - one in which I am regularly bested by our small group of puck geeks. (Marc and I try to fit in as many former and current San Jose Sharks as possible. Cuz who wouldn't want a little extra agony?) But I'm hooked by this simple, engaging format. It actually reminds me of the football pools we spontaneously put together as a family during the NFL playoffs last January. My wife hails from Michigan, so while my siblings and parents were rooting hard for the Niners, our house had a not-so-secret affinity for the resurgent Detroit Lions. When the two teams met in the NFC Championship, we put together a small grid with numbers on each axis and devised some "prop bets" to increase the prizes that could be won. We repeated this for the Super Bowl, and here again, the added investment in our game helped to offset any disappointment we may have had in the "big game" results. Moreover, it brought our family closer and gave us a chance to chat and exchange texts during the week when we often miss those opportunities amid all the crazy-busy. Funny how a simple game can build those connections. Another good leadership lesson.

Now that the Stanley Cup Playoffs are approaching, I hope to re-capture that magic with a playoff pool of my own that will double as a fundraiser for student scholarships at Chabot College. While we are in the process of setting up a direct-donation link, anyone willing to try my Puckdoku Playoff Pool for $20 will donate half that amount towards Language Arts scholarships for students transferring to university to pursue Bachelors degrees in English or another language. Reciprocally, I'll only be keeping $10 per player for the prize pool, so if you wish to increase your donation, simply add to your payment. 

Subsequent blogs will preview how the pool works and offer some insights into which teams might serve you best as you complete the nine-square grid. As there are four rounds in the playoffs, there will be three different grids. You predict which TEAMS fit in each square during the first two rounds, then use individual PLAYERS for the last grid (Conference Finals and Stanley Cup Finals.)

Here is the grid for the first round of the playoffs:

Round 1 Fill in the grid with nine different teams that match the intersecting criteria for Round 1 of the playoffs.

	League Leader	Next best in Western Conference	Next best in Eastern Conference
Most goals scored
Fewest goals allowed
Played in longest series.

The next blog will demonstrate how to participate in the pool, donate toward the scholarships, and complete the grid, looking at the goal-scoring for teams around the league this season. 

Stay tuned...